Business Income Model: Short-Term and Long-Term Scenarios Using a 200 Ha Plantation as an Example

Modern business requires careful planning and income forecasting. This article examines two business development models using the example of a 200-hectare plantation specializing in the production of forest products: short-term (4-20 years) and long-term (8-40 years) scenarios. Both approaches allow diversifying risks and maximizing profits.

Modern business requires careful planning and revenue forecasting. This article examines two business development models using a 200-hectare plantation specializing in timber production as an example: short-term (4-20 years) and long-term (8-40 years) scenarios. Both approaches allow for diversification of risks and maximization of profit.



Short-Term Scenario (4-20 years)

The short-term model focuses on a quick return on investment under favorable conditions. Key characteristics:

Timeline: 4 years for initial revenue, full cycle up to 20 years.
Expected Profit:In 4 years: $6,972,240 (≈697 million rubles)
Over 20 years: $34,861,200 (≈3.5 billion rubles)
Success Factors:Optimistic growth forecast.
Stable climatic conditions.
High-quality plantation management.
This scenario is suitable for investors focused on rapid payback and prepared to operate in a changing market environment.



Long-Term Scenario (8-40 years)

The long-term model is designed for sustainable development and includes additional income sources. Key features:

Timeline: 8 years for first significant revenue, full cycle up to 40 years.
Expected Profit:In 8 years: $19,250,000 (≈1.9 billion rubles)
Over 40 years: $96,250,000 (≈9.6 billion rubles)
Advantages:Increase in volume and quality of wood.
Additional income from honey collection.
Less dependence on short-term market fluctuations.
This option is ideal for strategic investors willing to invest in long-term projects with high growth potential.

Risk Diversification
Both scenarios minimize risks through:

Different Payback Periods: A balance between quick and long-term income.
Multiple Sales Channels:Direct contracts with construction companies and factories.
Working through distributors, including large platforms (e.g., Wildberries).
Additional Products: Honey as an additional source of income in the long term.
Final Indicators (Excluding 20% Taxes)

Short-Term Scenario:4 years: $7,477,422 (≈748 million rubles)
20 years: $47,397,110 (≈4.7 billion rubles)
Long-Term Scenario:8 years: $26,438,250 (≈2.6 billion rubles)
40 years: $132,191,250 (≈13.2 billion rubles)
Conclusion

The choice between a short-term and long-term scenario depends on the investor's goals:

The short-term model is suitable for rapid payback.
The long-term model is for maximum profit and sustainable development.
Note: The RUB/USD exchange rate is taken as 100 rubles per dollar based on data from the last 2 years. All calculations are forecasts and may be adjusted depending on external factors.